For what it's worth, Bureau says cyclones unlikely this year

THE Bureau of Meteorology released its 2015-16 tropical cyclone season outlook data this week predicting the eastern region of Australia was likely to experience a 73% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average this season.

However, it also said the outlook accuracy in this region was low.

Senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, Agata Imielska, said the main reason for the reduced cyclone likelihood was due to El Nino.

"We are in El nino until the end of summer," said Ms Imielska. "Even in El Nino we still generally see at least one tropical cyclone within the region (Australia)."

Since reliable records began in the 1970s, at least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each cyclone season. Although we may not get a cyclone this season we still get tropical lows in northern NSW.

"Across the Australian region on average we get 11 tropical cyclones each year. On average about four make landfall," said Ms Imielska.

"There's a reduced risk of widespread flooding but on the converse side we've got an increased risk of bushfire across Australia and increased heatwaves and are generally expecting drier and warmer conditions."


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