ONE of Queensland's safest seats could produce a 15% swing against the incumbent next Saturday, an academic says.
Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie could see his 26.3% margin trimmed to just 11.3%, according to Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams, who said the poll was boiling down to a referendum on Premier Campbell Newman.
Dr Williams predicts the government will be returned but reduced from 74 to about 48 seats.
He expects Mr Newman to lose Ashgrove in a tight contest and that several ministers will be left on razor-edge margins.
The latest poll published by Roy Morgan Research, and conducted by SMS, has the LNP on 50.5% on a two-party preferred count and Labor on 49.5%.
"There will be big swings in double digits from 10 to 12% but I expect it to be 15% plus in Kawana,'' Dr Williams said.
"On paper there's a one in four chance of a hung parliament.
"There'll be surprises. Some will go and others won't."
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