THE LNP's "just vote one" campaign, urging voters to put a number one next to the LNP candidate, is one thing that led to the party's downfall on the weekend, a political expert says.
Griffith University political analyst Dr Paul Williams said the LNP's campaign tactic of not asking voters to distribute preferences was a "big mistake" for the party, especially against the ALP's push to "put LNP last".
He said it led to a massive shortfall on preference votes.
Dr Williams said it was difficult to predict what the election outcome would be as vote counting continued, but he believed there would be a hung parliament and Labor would scrape over the line with the support of independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington.
This isn't the first time Mr Wellington has had the balance of power. In 1998 he sided with Labor after Peter Beattie's Labor team secured only 44 seats - one less than they needed to govern in their own right.
Dr Williams believed Mr Wellington would turn to Labor again if this election result ended with a hung parliament.
But he said it was unclear where the two Katter's Australian Party MPs - Rob Katter and Shane Knuth - would turn.
"They've never been in a position to negotiate before," Dr Williams said. "I think it's 50-50. I think Rob Katter is genuine in what he says - he's open to all on offer."
Dr Williams said Labor could take the opportunity to capitalise on the KAP's rocky relationship with the LNP.
But the KAP's stance on environmental laws, such as tree clearing, had the potential to upset Labor voters if the ALP agreed to these changes, he said.
Yesterday electorates including Ferny Grove, Lockyer and Whitsunday were in doubt.
The seat of Maryborough, which has been in doubt for most of the week, was added to the likely Labor win column yesterday morning.
Dr Williams said the massacre of LNP seats on the weekend was a sign Queenslanders did not like the Campbell Newman style of leadership.
"I think this was very much a referendum on Campbell Newman himself and his style of leadership. Obviously asset leases played a big part."
He said if the LNP had turned around in their first term of government and said they would not support asset leases given the outcry from the public, "I'm sure they would have gotten home on Saturday".
- APN NEWSDESK
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