Pauline Hanson.
Pauline Hanson.

Why Pauline Hanson's One Nation is not going away

IF you thought One Nation was just a temporary phenomenon, think again.

A new analysis by The Australia Institute shows the party is on track to retain federal seats in the upper house until at least 2025.

The research also shows the party's performance at the West Australian election in March was actually a big success, not the embarrassing failure it was reported as.

Senior researcher Philip Dorling has told Fairfax Media that if the WA election was any indication, the party could claim as many as seven Senate seats between 2019 and 2025.

Speaking about his yet-to-be-released paper One Nation in Western Australia: Epic fail or huge win?, Dorling told Fairfax the party has essentially doubled its vote in just seven months.

He argues that the party's slice of the first preference vote in WA was actually higher than the 4.86 per cent reported as One Nation only contested 35 out of the 59 lower house seats.

Across the seats it contested, One Nation claimed 8.47 per cent of the first preference votes.

In 10 of those seats it actually claimed 10 per cent of the vote.

Dorling said if One Nation's support in the state continued at this level, it was on track to claim at least two seats in WA at the next federal election.

"In the event that One Nation's support increases in other states, notably in Queensland and NSW but also elsewhere, the party could anticipate Senate representation of five and possibly six or seven senators between 2019 and 2025," Dorling told the publication.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson was catapulted back onto the political stage last year after the party claimed four crucial crossbench seats in the upper house at the July 2 federal election.

Senator Hanson has claimed some influence over major policy announcements - including major changes to Australia's citizenship test announced last week - since her return.

Dorling predicts One Nation will have long-term presence in Australian politics and continue to impact public policy.

He forecasts the party will have strong performance in Senator Hanson's home state of Queensland at the upcoming election.

News Corp Australia

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